Academics
1 . Front Page

Changing Leadership In The Arab World  Leadership Succession in the Arab World A Policy Makers’ Guide Jerrold D. Green Implications of Succession on the Peace Process Ehud Yaari CENTER FOR POLICY OPTIONS University of Judaism Summer 2000

2 . Leadership Succession in the Arab World

A Policy Makers’ Guide. Jerrold D. Green Center for Middle East Public Policy. RAND In a recent policy address, Ambassador Martin Indyk, the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, described 1999 as “a year of changes.”

3 . The Wake-Up Call from Amman

In a recent policy address, Ambassador Martin Indyk, the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, described 1999 as “a year of changes.” He devoted substantial attention in his remarks to the relationship between leadership succession and

4 . Autocracy May = Political Flexibility

As Table 1 illustrates, the heads of state of a number of Arab countries have been in power for some time and, in many cases, are reaching old age. In the overwhelming number of cases, power was not transferred to

5 . Step One: Attaining Power

Although in some political settings family may be the single most crucial determinant to political succession, there are limits to the predictive and explanatory power of familial ties. For although blood may be thicker than water, as we saw in

6 . Step Two: Retaining Power

As we indicate above, a transfer of power from a dynastic leader, be he a monarch (Saudi Arabia, Morocco) or a strong man (e.g. Iraq, Syria) is only as good as the ability of the recipient of the power to

7 . What You See May Not Be What You Get

In addition to the necessity of measuring political succession, not only by the passing of the power, but by its sustained retention, there is always the possibility that the line of succession may not be as straightforward as particular succession

8 . Measuring Performance

In addition to the difficulties of predicting what a succession will look like, as well as the second step of whether or not the recipient of power will be able to retain it, it is equally as difficult to predict

9 . Policy Implications for the United States

Although American and Israeli concerns in the Middle East are not always synonymous, there are clearly some shared and significant policy concerns for both Washington and Jerusalem in the realm of leadership succession in the Arab world. The first of

10 . Conclusions & Policy Recommendations

As is indicated at the outset, the question of political succession in the Arab world should be at the forefront of any attempt to gauge the future stability and evolution of the Middle East. A country is only as good

11 . Sources

Chiefs of State and Cabinet Members of Foreign Governments Central Intelligence Agency. Update March 15, 1999.http www.cia.gov cia publications chiefs index.html Iraq A Country StudyLibrary of Congress Federal Research Division, 1988 Edited by Helen Chapin Metz.http lcweb2.loc.gov frd cs lqtoc.html

12 . Notes

1 Gulf States Newsletter, October 18, 1999, Vol. 24, No. 62, Pg. 3 2 There is a burgeoning social science literature on what has become known as civil society in the Middle East which richly illustrates popular desires for, as

13 . About the Author

Jerrold D. Green Dr. Jerrold D. Green is the Director of International Development, Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy, Professor of International Studies at the RAND Graduate School (RGS), and a Senior Political Scientist at RAND in